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However, focusing on earnings-per-share figures at this stage of Lucid Motors' growth is misguided. Lucid Motors reported a loss of $0.64 per share in the December quarter, which was 29 cents higher than the expected loss of $0.35 per share. Lucid Motors only delivered 125 electric-vehicles last year, but the company expects to deliver significantly more vehicles this year, even if deliveries do not increase as much as expected. In addition to the revised production guidance for 2022, the large earnings-per-share miss caused by Lucid Motors' aggressive investments in its production scale may have irritated investors. Even if it takes a little longer to produce and deliver its electric-vehicles to customers, Lucid Motors can capitalize on this momentum. This revised (lowered) production forecast, in my opinion, is not a reason to sell the stock.Ī strong product that customers love is a far better way to predict a company's long-term success, and I believe Lucid Motors' pre-order status indicates that interest in the Lucid Air EV is strong and growing. Lucid Motors expects 12K - 14K EVs to leave its Arizona production facilities in 2022, which is less than the 20K that the company previously stated was possible. Having said that, I believe the drop is only temporary because pre-orders are still active.
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This piece of information is what caused Lucid Motors' stock to plummet yesterday. The fact that the electric-vehicle manufacturer revised its production forecast for 2022 was clearly not a good sign. Lucid Motors sells special editions with higher performance configurations, and these sales are likely to raise the average sales price significantly in the future. Lucid Motors stated that its total sales value is $2.4 billion, but that the final value will be determined by the sales mix.
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With 25K pre-orders, the Lucid Air's estimated order book value could be as high as $2.5 billion, assuming an average sales price of $100k per EV.īecause Lucid Motors' pre-orders were 2K higher than expected, the total estimated order book value is $200 million higher than what I predicted just a week ago ($2.3 billion). As a result, the 25K reservation number was 2K higher than expected. I expected the company to report an average monthly addition of 2K new pre-orders and a total pre-order volume of 23K when earnings were released. In the last three months, Lucid Motors received an average of 2.7K new reservations for its electric-vehicles. Since November 2021, when Lucid Motors reported 17K reservations for the Lucid Air and its various special editions, the company has added approximately 8K new reservations on top of its pre-orders, resulting in a 47% increase in pre-order volume in the last three months. As of 28 February 2022, customer reservations for the Lucid Air had surpassed 25K, indicating growing interest in Lucid Motors' EVs. The production reset was widely anticipated, which explains the sharp drop in the stock price.īut perhaps we should begin with Lucid Air pre-orders, as this is an area in which Lucid Motors excels. The stock of Lucid Motors fell sharply as a result of the electric-vehicle company lowering its production target for 2022. Lucid Motors reported fourth-quarter and full-year results at the start of the week, which unfortunately caused the stock to drop 15% after earnings were announced. Lucid Motors' Adjusted Outlook For 2022 Production Has Been A Negative Catalyst
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Despite the fact that the company reported Lucid Air EV reservations exceeding 25K in February, exceeding the upper end of my guidance, the stock may experience some short-term volatility as investors reset their expectations. Lucid Motors ( NASDAQ: LCID) will not grow as quickly as expected, based on the fact that the electric-vehicle manufacturer reduced its production target for 2022. JannHuizenga/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images